Before I begin to explain why I concluded that PMB may lose in the next year general elections, I want to make it clear that this is just my opinion which is based on recent political situations across the country and my little Nigeria political history knowledge which I have garner overtime in reading books and most especially a former presidential spokesperson’s book “Against the run of play ” which explain how an incumbent president was defeated in Nigeria and Mallam Bolaji Abdullah’s “On a platter of gold” on how Former President Goodluck Jonathan Won and lost Nigeria.
When I was about to begin this piece, I told my dad who is a diehard fan of PMB about his view on the topic of this article but he vehemently opposed it and advised me not to write it but rather on how Atiku Will lose the elections, he promised to give me insights on how to write it and I said I will come when I’m ready, His love for PMB is just so much.
Well, I know the likes of my brother Eniobanke, My colleagues and friends Sen. Lambo, Ayatullahi, Pheminix, SS Taofeek, Sen. Maxwell, Sen. Olowo, Sen. Sanni, Com Animashaun, Mallam Faisal and DT Sen. Nifemi will find this article unusual as they have on countless occasions see my stand that it is PMB or nobody and obviously my love for the national leader of the APC, Asiwaju BAT who I will always adore and follow his lead.
Though, I can’t hide my love and continuous prayer for him,PMB and their Party APC but i doubt if buhari can make it beyond 2019.
In one of my article early this year which was published by the Dailytimes and the Science Safari Magazine I clearly state why PMB is needed beyond 2019, But it is important to know that PMB will not just get reelected for second term in office just like that but will take rigorous, Tasking, Unhealthy and Negotiating process of Politics.
The Ruling Party APC was brought together to flush out the incumbent president, Saraki, Atiku, Tambuwal, Kwankwanso, Baraje and others who joined them then contributed substantially to his emergence even though most of them rode to power with his goodwill, they have all left him to fight alone with the Jagaban firmly behind him, is Jagaban Enough?
The only governor elected on the platform of the APC in the south south is the Statue Lover Owelle Rochas Okorocha, Who is also at loggerheads with the leadership of the party, His chief of staff cum son in-law was not declared as the gubernatorial candidate of the party even though he won the direct primaries, The governor SA on political affairs on live TV said they will work against buhari if Uche Nwosu is not declared as the winner of that election, The APC shouldn’t lose that man, he said he was instrumental to Fayemi and Akeredolu emergence as he was at those states for two weeks talking to the igbo communities there, Isn’t that man too big to lose?
Ogun state issue is just another story for another day as the governor candidate is not chosen and the Yewa Lokan factor is too big to overlook, The APC candidate is from the east while the ADC candidate GNI is from the Same political camp that brought Amosun on board, another plus is that GNI is from Yewa (Ogun West).
Adamawa issue is just too complex to dabble into as former EFCC head Nuhu Ribadu is not willing to let go and also Dr Morsi and other candidates who believes the primaries wasn’t transparent enough, Not forgetting that the Opposition Candidate is from that state, and the turaki and the incumbent governor are very very close, Will APC bounce back from that and win that state even with the Turaki Factor?
Kwara State issue, Hmm! Money played out, Professor Oba who is already saying “We remain steadfast in our party the PDP, sorry I mean APC ” is claiming the ticket, Former Saraki aide MM factor is also there for them to contend with, The candidate Alhaji Abdulrahman AbdulRasaq believes “less words more action” but that doesn’t even play out in Kwara politics I have closely
study overtime, let me even ask is there even any opposition in Kwara State?
Different states, Different Wahala, let’s come down to the masses who are the electorate who are tired of the state of the nation, Last general elections 13 candidates contested for president As against This year 81 isn’t that too much of an increment, but it is indicating that the political consciousness of the Nigerian state has blossomed, an average Nigeria haven’t seen the benefits of this government, they haven’t felt the change they voted for, Vote buying and Stomach infrastructure will seriously play out but to what extent?
The state of security in the country is bad, tomorrow Crisis, Today Curfew, Next week Boko Haram, in the night Nigerians cannot sleep with full eyes closed, They are not feeling the presence of the government at the centrer, the market woman are complaining, The coat of living is high while the standard of living is low, People are suffering.
The Opposition candidates, Can he do it better? His former boss described him in his book which has become a point of reference when he said “what I didn’t know, which came out glaringly later, was his parental background which was somewhat shadowy, his propensity to corruption, his tendency to disloyalty, his inability to say and stick to the truth all the time, a propensity for poor judgement, his belief and reliance on marabouts, his lack of transparency, his trust in money to buy his way out on all issues and his readiness to sacrifice morality, integrity, propriety,truth and national interest for self and selfish interest” while PMB is known for integrity But how many Nigerians knows this? How many Nigerian have access to the book, the book coat 15,000 or so an average Nigeria will rather buy good cloths than buy a book of that price, The masses are tired of PMB but is Atiku an option?
Even though PMB is very good and capable, but he is not managing the economy well, His economic policies doesn’t bring food to the table of the masses, if the electorate finally revolt against him, it will be so deadly.
Some important governors and critical stakeholders are not happy with the party leadership led by Osho Baba, They are aggrieved and accusing him of collecting money from some aspirants to declare them as the candidates.
We should recall that this same process was used to defeat the incumbent last general elections buhari should be careful, The south south and south east are predominantly PDP capitals with Peter obi from them, it is a settled game for them, the north west, East and central will surely Vote for buhari though Atiku may win some states like Kwara,Niger and Adamawa but I doubt if he can go beyond that as the remaining states will vote in mass for him, those people are just too loyal to Sai Baba, The southwest will be a fighting ground for both parties, Osun state elections is a litmus test for what is coming, Will the southwest look beyond their suffering and vote for PMB?
The APC should be apt to settle different grievances amidst the party before campaign finally state next week or else, They should look at the situation and learn from Jonathan. Baba may be gone if not quicky settled, Lagos is even a settled deal already, Tinubu Leads, We follow.
Bagbansoro Uthman O is a freelance writer, a student of the better by far university of Ilorin and Can be contacted via, Bagbansorou@yahoo.com, 08106856586